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Jim Higgins

External


Since: May 03, 2007
Posts: 792



(Msg. 1) Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 9:17 pm
Post subject: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life
Archived from groups: rec>autos>makers>chrysler (more info?)

Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/chrysler-suicide-watch-37-no-lease-on-life/

Chrysler Financial has pulled the plug on new vehicle leases. Given
ongoing bankruptcy rumors, the automaker’s co-Prez immediately manned
the PR barricades. Jim Press reassured the world that Chrysler is simply
diverting lease subsidies into “traditional financing.” That way, “many
customers” could enjoy “about” the same monthly payment that they “would
have had” in a lease. Meanwhile, ChryCo spokeswoman Shawn Morgan sang
the same old song. "Despite the challenges, Chrysler continues to meet
or exceed its plan on all financial metrics." C’mon, really?

Talk about the smartest guys in the room! This statement assumes that
Cerberus Capital Management knew the U.S. new vehicle market was about
to implode when they bought Chrysler in spring 2007. If so, talk about
disinformation! At the time of Chrysler's purchase from Daimler,
Cerberus Chairman John Snow said: "Cerberus believes in the inherent
strength of U.S. manufacturing and of the U.S. auto industry."

Inherent maybe. But since that fateful day last August when Cerberus
took ownership of the Pentastar, the domestic auto market’s gone south.
South Pole in the winter south.

In fact, truck and fleet car-heavy Chrysler couldn’t be worse positioned
for the economic downdraft. Its cash cows are dead; the slaughterhouse
is backed-up with carcasses. Their revamped minivan is selling less
briskly than the model it replaced. The new Dodge Ram is scheduled for a
fall launch, but it won’t/can’t get out of the gate unless dealers can
get rid of the old Rams– which are stockpiled to fences. Many Dodge
dealers have trucks on the ground that have had birthday celebrations.

The numbers speak for themselves…

In the first half of 2008, ChryCo sales slipped some 250k units compared
to ’07. That’s roughly a 22 percent decline. Chrysler’s truck sales are
down 25 percent, the biggest loss of any major truck maker. The
automaker’s overall market share has dropped 1.8 percent; it’s now less
than 12 percent. We already know the impact of sagging sales and lost
market share on Ford’s financials. Does Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli really
expect us to believe that his employer’s been meeting or exceeding its
projections?

To accept that assertion we’d have to ignore Daimler’s Q1/08 public
financials. These stats suggest that Chrysler Holdings (including the
automotive ops and the finance arm) lost a staggering $2.9b in a three
month period.

Not at all says Chrysler. Daimler included a whole bunch of items which
cannot be used to make such a calculation. We lost only $509m. One of
those “excepted items” includes a $200m difference due to US and Euro
accounting standards. So Chrysler didn’t recognize certain expenses but
Daimler did?

You’d be forgiven for thinking that under a more "aggressively
conservative" accounting approach, Chrysler Holdings lost $700m in the
first quarter, maybe more. Any way you cut it, it;s bad. Yet all we get
from the CEO's office is an exhortation to ChryCo employees to “stick to
the course we have set for ourselves for a return to profitability.”

No one beyond Cerberus founder Steven Feinberg’s inner circle of
executives and bankers knows the exact truth about Chrysler’s
financials. In the absence of solid information from Auburn Hills about
the automaker’s financial health, speculation about Chrysler’s future,
or lack thereof, is running rampant.

And why not? It's clear that there ain’t no mo’ money available to the
company. The bankers have put down their ten-foot poles and run. If the
well runs dry, that’s it, the gig is up.

Lenders to Chrysler’s suppliers, vendors and dealers are getting
nervous. Extended payment terms, selective invoice discounts, and for
some, delayed payments, exacerbate the tension. We’re told that there’s
$7b in the kitty. But every dollar is precious. Prudent cash flow
management or an internal scramble to manage the cash drawer to keep it
from emptying? This could be the prelude to the “run on the bank”
scenario RF mooted for GM back in Delphi’s dark days.

The dominoes will start to fall if and when a lender to a Chrysler
supplier decides it doesn’t want to continue providing financing. Credit
gets cut off. Facing extinction, the supplier puts Chrysler on a
“payment on delivery basis.” The fire spreads. Every supplier insists on
cash on delivery. Word gets out. Dealers stop ordering vehicles.
Chrysler runs short of cash. Game over.

To forestall foreclosure, Cerberus needs to publish Chrysler’s
financials (including the financial arm). If the automaker’s doing
better than we think, that’s great. We’d like to share in the brilliance
of the turnaround. Chrysler’s camp followers will support Nardelli’s
public proclamations. Dealers and suppliers will have more confidence in
the company and the stewardship by Cerberus.

If the dark clouds of bankruptcy are hovering over Auburn Hills, well
Ford and GM aren’t doing so great either. At least it’s out there for
everyone to see. But Chrysler’s continuing drumbeat of plant shutdowns,
employee layoffs, sales declines and now a cut-off of leasing just leads
to speculation, none of it good. The question remains: how much of it is
right?


--
Civis Romanus Sum

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kmath50

External


Since: Mar 27, 2007
Posts: 45



(Msg. 2) Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:20 pm
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On Jul 26, 7:17 pm, Jim Higgins <gordian....DeleteThis@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Lifehttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/chrysler-suicide-watch-37-no-lease-o...
>
> Chrysler Financial has pulled the plug on new vehicle leases. Given
> ongoing bankruptcy rumors, the automaker’s co-Prez immediately manned
> the PR barricades. Jim Press reassured the world that Chrysler is simply
> diverting lease subsidies into “traditional financing.” That way, “many
> customers” could enjoy “about” the same monthly payment that they “would
> have had” in a lease. Meanwhile, ChryCo spokeswoman Shawn Morgan sang
> the same old song. "Despite the challenges, Chrysler continues to meet
> or exceed its plan on all financial metrics." C’mon, really?
>
> Talk about the smartest guys in the room! This statement assumes that
> Cerberus Capital Management knew the U.S. new vehicle market was about
> to implode when they bought Chrysler in spring 2007. If so, talk about
> disinformation! At the time of Chrysler's purchase from Daimler,
> Cerberus Chairman John Snow said: "Cerberus believes in the inherent
> strength of U.S. manufacturing and of the U.S. auto industry."
>
> Inherent maybe. But since that fateful day last August when Cerberus
> took ownership of the Pentastar, the domestic auto market’s gone south.
> South Pole in the winter south.
>
> In fact, truck and fleet car-heavy Chrysler couldn’t be worse positioned
> for the economic downdraft. Its cash cows are dead; the slaughterhouse
> is backed-up with carcasses. Their revamped minivan is selling less
> briskly than the model it replaced. The new Dodge Ram is scheduled for a
> fall launch, but it won’t/can’t get out of the gate unless dealers can
> get rid of the old Rams– which are stockpiled to fences. Many Dodge
> dealers have trucks on the ground that have had birthday celebrations.
>
> The numbers speak for themselves…
>
> In the first half of 2008, ChryCo sales slipped some 250k units compared
> to ’07. That’s roughly a 22 percent decline. Chrysler’s truck sales are
> down 25 percent, the biggest loss of any major truck maker. The
> automaker’s overall market share has dropped 1.8 percent; it’s now less
> than 12 percent. We already know the impact of sagging sales and lost
> market share on Ford’s financials. Does Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli really
> expect us to believe that his employer’s been meeting or exceeding its
> projections?
>
> To accept that assertion we’d have to ignore Daimler’s Q1/08 public
> financials. These stats suggest that Chrysler Holdings (including the
> automotive ops and the finance arm) lost a staggering $2.9b in a three
> month period.
>
> Not at all says Chrysler. Daimler included a whole bunch of items which
> cannot be used to make such a calculation. We lost only $509m. One of
> those “excepted items” includes a $200m difference due to US and Euro
> accounting standards. So Chrysler didn’t recognize certain expenses but
> Daimler did?
>
> You’d be forgiven for thinking that under a more "aggressively
> conservative" accounting approach, Chrysler Holdings lost $700m in the
> first quarter, maybe more. Any way you cut it, it;s bad. Yet all we get
> from the CEO's office is an exhortation to ChryCo employees to “stick to
> the course we have set for ourselves for a return to profitability.”
>
> No one beyond Cerberus founder Steven Feinberg’s inner circle of
> executives and bankers knows the exact truth about Chrysler’s
> financials. In the absence of solid information from Auburn Hills about
> the automaker’s financial health, speculation about Chrysler’s future,
> or lack thereof, is running rampant.
>
> And why not? It's clear that there ain’t no mo’ money available to the
> company. The bankers have put down their ten-foot poles and run. If the
> well runs dry, that’s it, the gig is up.
>
> Lenders to Chrysler’s suppliers, vendors and dealers are getting
> nervous. Extended payment terms, selective invoice discounts, and for
> some, delayed payments, exacerbate the tension. We’re told that there’s
> $7b in the kitty. But every dollar is precious. Prudent cash flow
> management or an internal scramble to manage the cash drawer to keep it
> from emptying? This could be the prelude to the “run on the bank”
> scenario RF mooted for GM back in Delphi’s dark days.
>
> The dominoes will start to fall if and when a lender to a Chrysler
> supplier decides it doesn’t want to continue providing financing. Credit
> gets cut off. Facing extinction, the supplier puts Chrysler on a
> “payment on delivery basis.” The fire spreads. Every supplier insists on
> cash on delivery. Word gets out. Dealers stop ordering vehicles.
> Chrysler runs short of cash. Game over.
>
> To forestall foreclosure, Cerberus needs to publish Chrysler’s
> financials (including the financial arm). If the automaker’s doing
> better than we think, that’s great. We’d like to share in the brilliance
> of the turnaround. Chrysler’s camp followers will support Nardelli’s
> public proclamations. Dealers and suppliers will have more confidence in
> the company and the stewardship by Cerberus.
>
> If the dark clouds of bankruptcy are hovering over Auburn Hills, well
> Ford and GM aren’t doing so great either. At least it’s out there for
> everyone to see. But Chrysler’s continuing drumbeat of plant shutdowns,
> employee layoffs, sales declines and now a cut-off of leasing just leads
> to speculation, none of it good. The question remains: how much of it is
> right?
>
> --
> Civis Romanus Sum

What happens if an automobile manufacturer sinks? Are existing owners
left with no way to buy replacement parts that are not available on
the aftermarket?

-KM

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rob

External


Since: Jul 25, 2008
Posts: 23



(Msg. 3) Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 3:31 pm
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

ask folks driving Daewoo's



<kmath50 DeleteThis @gmail.com> wrote in message
news:f0ed897a-944c-499c-b35d-06e230b690aa@p31g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
On Jul 26, 7:17 pm, Jim Higgins <gordian... DeleteThis @hotmail.com> wrote:
> Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on
> Lifehttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/chrysler-suicide-watch-37-no-lease-o...
>
> Chrysler Financial has pulled the plug on new vehicle leases. Given
> ongoing bankruptcy rumors, the automaker’s co-Prez immediately manned
> the PR barricades. Jim Press reassured the world that Chrysler is simply
> diverting lease subsidies into “traditional financing.” That way, “many
> customers” could enjoy “about” the same monthly payment that they “would
> have had” in a lease. Meanwhile, ChryCo spokeswoman Shawn Morgan sang
> the same old song. "Despite the challenges, Chrysler continues to meet
> or exceed its plan on all financial metrics." C’mon, really?
>
> Talk about the smartest guys in the room! This statement assumes that
> Cerberus Capital Management knew the U.S. new vehicle market was about
> to implode when they bought Chrysler in spring 2007. If so, talk about
> disinformation! At the time of Chrysler's purchase from Daimler,
> Cerberus Chairman John Snow said: "Cerberus believes in the inherent
> strength of U.S. manufacturing and of the U.S. auto industry."
>
> Inherent maybe. But since that fateful day last August when Cerberus
> took ownership of the Pentastar, the domestic auto market’s gone south.
> South Pole in the winter south.
>
> In fact, truck and fleet car-heavy Chrysler couldn’t be worse positioned
> for the economic downdraft. Its cash cows are dead; the slaughterhouse
> is backed-up with carcasses. Their revamped minivan is selling less
> briskly than the model it replaced. The new Dodge Ram is scheduled for a
> fall launch, but it won’t/can’t get out of the gate unless dealers can
> get rid of the old Rams– which are stockpiled to fences. Many Dodge
> dealers have trucks on the ground that have had birthday celebrations.
>
> The numbers speak for themselves…
>
> In the first half of 2008, ChryCo sales slipped some 250k units compared
> to ’07. That’s roughly a 22 percent decline. Chrysler’s truck sales are
> down 25 percent, the biggest loss of any major truck maker. The
> automaker’s overall market share has dropped 1.8 percent; it’s now less
> than 12 percent. We already know the impact of sagging sales and lost
> market share on Ford’s financials. Does Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli really
> expect us to believe that his employer’s been meeting or exceeding its
> projections?
>
> To accept that assertion we’d have to ignore Daimler’s Q1/08 public
> financials. These stats suggest that Chrysler Holdings (including the
> automotive ops and the finance arm) lost a staggering $2.9b in a three
> month period.
>
> Not at all says Chrysler. Daimler included a whole bunch of items which
> cannot be used to make such a calculation. We lost only $509m. One of
> those “excepted items” includes a $200m difference due to US and Euro
> accounting standards. So Chrysler didn’t recognize certain expenses but
> Daimler did?
>
> You’d be forgiven for thinking that under a more "aggressively
> conservative" accounting approach, Chrysler Holdings lost $700m in the
> first quarter, maybe more. Any way you cut it, it;s bad. Yet all we get
> from the CEO's office is an exhortation to ChryCo employees to “stick to
> the course we have set for ourselves for a return to profitability.”
>
> No one beyond Cerberus founder Steven Feinberg’s inner circle of
> executives and bankers knows the exact truth about Chrysler’s
> financials. In the absence of solid information from Auburn Hills about
> the automaker’s financial health, speculation about Chrysler’s future,
> or lack thereof, is running rampant.
>
> And why not? It's clear that there ain’t no mo’ money available to the
> company. The bankers have put down their ten-foot poles and run. If the
> well runs dry, that’s it, the gig is up.
>
> Lenders to Chrysler’s suppliers, vendors and dealers are getting
> nervous. Extended payment terms, selective invoice discounts, and for
> some, delayed payments, exacerbate the tension. We’re told that there’s
> $7b in the kitty. But every dollar is precious. Prudent cash flow
> management or an internal scramble to manage the cash drawer to keep it
> from emptying? This could be the prelude to the “run on the bank”
> scenario RF mooted for GM back in Delphi’s dark days.
>
> The dominoes will start to fall if and when a lender to a Chrysler
> supplier decides it doesn’t want to continue providing financing. Credit
> gets cut off. Facing extinction, the supplier puts Chrysler on a
> “payment on delivery basis.” The fire spreads. Every supplier insists on
> cash on delivery. Word gets out. Dealers stop ordering vehicles.
> Chrysler runs short of cash. Game over.
>
> To forestall foreclosure, Cerberus needs to publish Chrysler’s
> financials (including the financial arm). If the automaker’s doing
> better than we think, that’s great. We’d like to share in the brilliance
> of the turnaround. Chrysler’s camp followers will support Nardelli’s
> public proclamations. Dealers and suppliers will have more confidence in
> the company and the stewardship by Cerberus.
>
> If the dark clouds of bankruptcy are hovering over Auburn Hills, well
> Ford and GM aren’t doing so great either. At least it’s out there for
> everyone to see. But Chrysler’s continuing drumbeat of plant shutdowns,
> employee layoffs, sales declines and now a cut-off of leasing just leads
> to speculation, none of it good. The question remains: how much of it is
> right?
>
> --
> Civis Romanus Sum

What happens if an automobile manufacturer sinks? Are existing owners
left with no way to buy replacement parts that are not available on
the aftermarket?

-KM
 >> Stay informed about: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life 
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kmath50

External


Since: Mar 27, 2007
Posts: 45



(Msg. 4) Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:12 pm
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On Jul 29, 1:31 pm, "rob" <m....TakeThisOut@home.orgg> wrote:
> ask folks driving Daewoo's

That's exactly my fear.

I have seen the news specials about how Daewoo owners are left with no
service or replacement parts.

-KM

>
> <kmat....TakeThisOut@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:f0ed897a-944c-499c-b35d-06e230b690aa@p31g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
> On Jul 26, 7:17 pm, Jim Higgins <gordian....TakeThisOut@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on
> > Lifehttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/chrysler-suicide-watch-37-no-lease-o...
>
> > Chrysler Financial has pulled the plug on new vehicle leases. Given
> > ongoing bankruptcy rumors, the automaker’s co-Prez immediately manned
> > the PR barricades. Jim Press reassured the world that Chrysler is simply
> > diverting lease subsidies into “traditional financing.” That way, “many
> > customers” could enjoy “about” the same monthly payment that they “would
> > have had” in a lease. Meanwhile, ChryCo spokeswoman Shawn Morgan sang
> > the same old song. "Despite the challenges, Chrysler continues to meet
> > or exceed its plan on all financial metrics." C’mon, really?
>
> > Talk about the smartest guys in the room! This statement assumes that
> > Cerberus Capital Management knew the U.S. new vehicle market was about
> > to implode when they bought Chrysler in spring 2007. If so, talk about
> > disinformation! At the time of Chrysler's purchase from Daimler,
> > Cerberus Chairman John Snow said: "Cerberus believes in the inherent
> > strength of U.S. manufacturing and of the U.S. auto industry."
>
> > Inherent maybe. But since that fateful day last August when Cerberus
> > took ownership of the Pentastar, the domestic auto market’s gone south.
> > South Pole in the winter south.
>
> > In fact, truck and fleet car-heavy Chrysler couldn’t be worse positioned
> > for the economic downdraft. Its cash cows are dead; the slaughterhouse
> > is backed-up with carcasses. Their revamped minivan is selling less
> > briskly than the model it replaced. The new Dodge Ram is scheduled for a
> > fall launch, but it won’t/can’t get out of the gate unless dealers can
> > get rid of the old Rams– which are stockpiled to fences. Many Dodge
> > dealers have trucks on the ground that have had birthday celebrations.
>
> > The numbers speak for themselves…
>
> > In the first half of 2008, ChryCo sales slipped some 250k units compared
> > to ’07. That’s roughly a 22 percent decline. Chrysler’s truck sales are
> > down 25 percent, the biggest loss of any major truck maker. The
> > automaker’s overall market share has dropped 1.8 percent; it’s now less
> > than 12 percent. We already know the impact of sagging sales and lost
> > market share on Ford’s financials. Does Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli really
> > expect us to believe that his employer’s been meeting or exceeding its
> > projections?
>
> > To accept that assertion we’d have to ignore Daimler’s Q1/08 public
> > financials. These stats suggest that Chrysler Holdings (including the
> > automotive ops and the finance arm) lost a staggering $2.9b in a three
> > month period.
>
> > Not at all says Chrysler. Daimler included a whole bunch of items which
> > cannot be used to make such a calculation. We lost only $509m. One of
> > those “excepted items” includes a $200m difference due to US and Euro
> > accounting standards. So Chrysler didn’t recognize certain expenses but
> > Daimler did?
>
> > You’d be forgiven for thinking that under a more "aggressively
> > conservative" accounting approach, Chrysler Holdings lost $700m in the
> > first quarter, maybe more. Any way you cut it, it;s bad. Yet all we get
> > from the CEO's office is an exhortation to ChryCo employees to “stick to
> > the course we have set for ourselves for a return to profitability.”
>
> > No one beyond Cerberus founder Steven Feinberg’s inner circle of
> > executives and bankers knows the exact truth about Chrysler’s
> > financials. In the absence of solid information from Auburn Hills about
> > the automaker’s financial health, speculation about Chrysler’s future,
> > or lack thereof, is running rampant.
>
> > And why not? It's clear that there ain’t no mo’ money available to the
> > company. The bankers have put down their ten-foot poles and run. If the
> > well runs dry, that’s it, the gig is up.
>
> > Lenders to Chrysler’s suppliers, vendors and dealers are getting
> > nervous. Extended payment terms, selective invoice discounts, and for
> > some, delayed payments, exacerbate the tension. We’re told that there’s
> > $7b in the kitty. But every dollar is precious. Prudent cash flow
> > management or an internal scramble to manage the cash drawer to keep it
> > from emptying? This could be the prelude to the “run on the bank”
> > scenario RF mooted for GM back in Delphi’s dark days.
>
> > The dominoes will start to fall if and when a lender to a Chrysler
> > supplier decides it doesn’t want to continue providing financing. Credit
> > gets cut off. Facing extinction, the supplier puts Chrysler on a
> > “payment on delivery basis.” The fire spreads. Every supplier insists on
> > cash on delivery. Word gets out. Dealers stop ordering vehicles.
> > Chrysler runs short of cash. Game over.
>
> > To forestall foreclosure, Cerberus needs to publish Chrysler’s
> > financials (including the financial arm). If the automaker’s doing
> > better than we think, that’s great. We’d like to share in the brilliance
> > of the turnaround. Chrysler’s camp followers will support Nardelli’s
> > public proclamations. Dealers and suppliers will have more confidence in
> > the company and the stewardship by Cerberus.
>
> > If the dark clouds of bankruptcy are hovering over Auburn Hills, well
> > Ford and GM aren’t doing so great either. At least it’s out there for
> > everyone to see. But Chrysler’s continuing drumbeat of plant shutdowns,
> > employee layoffs, sales declines and now a cut-off of leasing just leads
> > to speculation, none of it good. The question remains: how much of it is
> > right?
>
> > --
> > Civis Romanus Sum
>
> What happens if an automobile manufacturer sinks? Are existing owners
> left with no way to buy replacement parts that are not available on
> the aftermarket?
>
> -KM- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
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C-BODY

External


Since: Sep 24, 2005
Posts: 16



(Msg. 5) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:50 am
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

IF Chrysler "sinks", then the spare parts already in the warehouse chain
would probably be sold (liquidated) to some vendor group who would then
sell them to others. At various times over the years, Chrysler's MoPar
brand was sold through auto parts jobbers just as AC-Delco and
Motorcraft were, outside of the normal dealer supply chain. This could
well be how things transpire if Chrysler/Cerberus close.

Much of the lackluster product that's not selling well is what Cerberus
inherited from the Daimler involvment in Chrysler. For all of the
"quality" Daimler might have added to the mix, Chrysler had better sales
before that. Plus cars with better fuel economy, too. The Chrysler
3.5L V-6 was a great motor, but having to pull a 4K+ pound car around is
straining it a little. Even the first gen 217 horse versions did fine
in the first gen LH cars and the 250 horse versions in the 300Ms were
great too.

The way that Cerberus/Chrysler has told the dealers that they'll have to
get by with fewer models to sell, it's apparent to me that they are
buying into the "We'll sell the same number of vehicles with fewer
consumer choices" train of thought . . . right down to fewer sales. The
combination of stores to all of them being Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep will tend
to mask the fewer lines and choices, but that situation is still there.
Why this newer generation of marketing "guru" thinks that they'll sell
more with less is amazing! When the USA manufactures would build pretty
much anything the consumer might want, they sold LOTS of vehicles each
year. Now we have a restricted choice of exterior colors and usually
only TWO interior color choices! Whoopppeeeee.

The more I read about Cerberus, the more I see Chrysler's size shrinking
until it's not there any more. Trying to be a boutique or niche
manufacturer is a very treacherous route to try to take--period.
Chrysler might have been successful by finding niches no other
manufacturer was into and then capitalizing on that, but not at the
expense of customer choice of vehicles in those niches. Plus, back then
they were pumping out win after win after win, unlike now when the wins
have dwindled to one or two.

Just the way I suspect things might head, given the signals we've all
seen. I hope I'm wrong!

C-BODY
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Pete E. Kruzer

External


Since: Nov 08, 2006
Posts: 32



(Msg. 6) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 6:11 am
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

I also heard that the same thing will be happening to General Mortors.
They will only sell Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac.
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Pete E. Kruzer

External


Since: Nov 08, 2006
Posts: 32



(Msg. 7) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 10:30 am
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)

On Jul 30, 12:41 pm, "Count Floyd"
<CountFl... DeleteThis @MonsterChillerHorrorTheater.com> wrote:
>
> Isn't Pontiac with the new G6 selling better than Buick?

Wouldn't surprise me if it was. I was surprised when they dropped
Oldsmobile. My wife has a 2001 Alero that's still very much in style.
I personally think Pontiac has a much better choice of vehicles than
Buick. But then not I'm an old fart that's going to take my last ride
in a Buick.
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Lloyd

External


Since: May 15, 2007
Posts: 48



(Msg. 8) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:06 am
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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On Jul 30, 1:50 am, C-B....RemoveThis@webtv.net wrote:
> IF Chrysler "sinks", then the spare parts already in the warehouse chain
> would probably be sold (liquidated) to some vendor group who would then
> sell them to others. At various times over the years, Chrysler's MoPar
> brand was sold through auto parts jobbers just as AC-Delco and
> Motorcraft were, outside of the normal dealer supply chain. This could
> well be how things transpire if Chrysler/Cerberus close.

Chrysler buys most parts instead of making them, so there'd still be
parts available.

>
> Much of the lackluster product that's not selling well is what Cerberus
> inherited from the Daimler involvment in Chrysler. For all of the
> "quality" Daimler might have added to the mix, Chrysler had better sales
> before that.

Up and down. Almost bankrupt in mid-70s, remember? And you've got to
look at much was low-profit fleet sales.


>Plus cars with better fuel economy, too. The Chrysler
> 3.5L V-6 was a great motor, but having to pull a 4K+ pound car around is
> straining it a little. Even the first gen 217 horse versions did fine
> in the first gen LH cars and the 250 horse versions in the 300Ms were
> great too.

Actually an LX 3.5 isn't that slow, from the road tests I've seen.

>
> The way that Cerberus/Chrysler has told the dealers that they'll have to
> get by with fewer models to sell, it's apparent to me that they are
> buying into the "We'll sell the same number of vehicles with fewer
> consumer choices" train of thought . . . right down to fewer sales.

Honda outsells Chrysler with fewer models.


> The
> combination of stores to all of them being Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep will tend
> to mask the fewer lines and choices, but that situation is still there.
> Why this newer generation of marketing "guru" thinks that they'll sell
> more with less is amazing! When the USA manufactures would build pretty
> much anything the consumer might want, they sold LOTS of vehicles each
> year. Now we have a restricted choice of exterior colors and usually
> only TWO interior color choices! Whoopppeeeee.

Again, note Honda. With only TWO platforms (not counting the very low-
volume S2000) -- Civic (used for CR-V, Element, and RDX) and Accord
(used for Odyssey, Pilot, TSX, TL, RL), it outsells Chrysler.

>
> The more I read about Cerberus, the more I see Chrysler's size shrinking
> until it's not there any more. Trying to be a boutique or niche
> manufacturer is a very treacherous route to try to take--period.
> Chrysler might have been successful by finding niches no other
> manufacturer was into and then capitalizing on that, but not at the
> expense of customer choice of vehicles in those niches. Plus, back then
> they were pumping out win after win after win, unlike now when the wins
> have dwindled to one or two.
>

I think Cerebus will sell Chrysler. They're not a car-making company;
they're an investor-profit-making company. I predict either:

1. Nissan-Renault will buy Chrysler. We've already got the Nissan
small car to Chrysler, Chrysler truck to Nissan deal. And Nissan-
Renault-Chrysler would give the company true global presence.
or
2. A Chinese company will buy Chrysler.

> Just the way I suspect things might head, given the signals we've all
> seen. I hope I'm wrong!
>
> C-BODY
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Lloyd

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Since: May 15, 2007
Posts: 48



(Msg. 9) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:07 am
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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On Jul 30, 12:41 pm, "Count Floyd"
<CountFl... DeleteThis @MonsterChillerHorrorTheater.com> wrote:
> On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:11:54 UTC, "Pete E. Kruzer" <tomka... DeleteThis @aol.com>
> wrote:
>
> > I also heard that the same thing will be happening to General Mortors.
> > They will only sell Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac.
>
> Isn't Pontiac with the new G6 selling better than Buick?

The G6 is selling poorly, from what I've read -- not up to
expectations. It's a very mediocre car. Are you thinking of the rwd
G8? It's just been introduced, and I doubt it's selling all that much
at first, especially since it's big and has a V8, with gas prices the
way they are.

I still hate it that GM dropped Oldsmobile allegedly to concentrate on
Hummer!
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Count Floyd

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Since: Feb 08, 2008
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(Msg. 10) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 4:41 pm
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:11:54 UTC, "Pete E. Kruzer" <tomkanpa RemoveThis @aol.com>
wrote:

> I also heard that the same thing will be happening to General Mortors.
> They will only sell Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac.
Isn't Pontiac with the new G6 selling better than Buick?
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C-BODY

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Since: Sep 24, 2005
Posts: 16



(Msg. 11) Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:33 pm
Post subject: Re: Chrysler Suicide Watch 37: No Lease on Life [Login to view extended thread Info.]
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I think somebody is getting the G6 confused with the G8. The G6 is a
similar to last year's Chevy Malibu, which is derived from a platform
first used by Saab. Like the Malibu (not the current "new" Malibu),
with the Vortec 3.5L pushrod V-6 it can get some great fuel economy on
the highway (low to middle 30s, from my own experiences).

The G8 is the updated rwd platform which sired the Holden Monaro coupe
and Pontiac GTO and is also used in the GM Middle East orientation as
"Chevrolet Caprice". It comes in two trim equipment levels . . . the
"base" with the GM DOHC 3.6L V-6 and the "GT" with the 6.0L pushrod V-8.
I suspect that when Camaro production begins, the G8 production will
shift to the USA, plus resulting in a Chevy rwd version of that
platform.

For about 10 years now, there have been "experts" dickering back and
forth about which GM division will be next to be deleted.
Unfortunately, this same mindset is somewhat ignorant and not
marketing-based per se.

Key point not admitted to or seemingly understood: You CAN'T sell what
you don't have to sell. If you decrease what you can sell, you make
less money and have less market penetration to build a future customer
base with. In other words, it starts a downward spiral of sales and
related corporate profits. Still, there's something about that which
reminds me of the old saying about 17 year olds . . . "What part of 'NO'
don't you understand?" or "Quick! Leave home while you still know
everything!"

After GM deleted Oldsmobile, the next year's sales were down
siginificantly. Same when DC eliminated the few Plymouth models they
had left. Less product, less sales, less profits. Rocket science?

If you take the production and sales numbers of either Oldsmobile or
Plymouth individually, and then compare them to many import brands, it
becomes pretty evident that these name-brand import brands have less
volume and still manage to stay in business with a reasonably broad
product mix AND similar products via their companion luxury brands.
Audi might have some unique products from VW, but they also share an SUV
platform (Cayenne/Touareg). Nissan and Infinity are similar, with
product differentiation and styling differences.

Toyota has a product for every purse, but many don't admit to it that
way. When you mention General Motors in that orientation, you hear all
kinds of "That's a mistake. That doesn't work any more" dialogue. Few
people seem to understand that Nissan and Toyota both have SUV models
similar in size to the Chevy Tahoe or Dodge Durango (typically with less
fuel economy, but more horsepower).

There's also the situation of a plant having to have a certain amount of
production volume to make it pay for itself. Fewer models = less
production = less plants needed = layoffs. This is what makes the
Chrysler Aspen and Dodge Durango viable, just like the Sebring and
Avenger, plus the various Jeep and Dodge models on the same platform.

So many alleged marketing geniuses seem to believe that if you have,
say, $25K to spend, you look at price rather than what sort of
orientation that $25K will buy you in a vehicle--and they perceive you
only need ONE choice. One buyer might take that $25K and want the
luxury image of a Chrysler, another might want the sportier image of a
Dodge, and another might want an off-road/go anywhere image of a Jeep.
NOT the same customer by any means, but these alleged marketing geniuses
don't understand that. They look ONLY at the price point and not at
what that price point buys.

There have always been price overlaps between the various carlines of
Ford, GM, and Chrysler. This is NOT a bad thing! It gives MORE
customers MORE choices. It also allows one carline division to be a
guinea pig of sorts in trying some new option or engineering before it
goes corporate-wide. Olds and Buick did that for GM, in times past.
Dodge and Plymouth did it for Chrysler, while Chrysler and Imperial
quietly might have had similar things, but not trumpeted them. In other
words, the manufacturer gave the customer COMPELLING REASONS to purchase
a particular brand of vehicle rather than something else. No rocket
science, just good business sense!

In the 1980s, a main "compelling reason" for the GM brands was their
bells and whistles that were unique to GM vehicles. Things which might
have positioned GM as a technology leader as they seemed to ignore
refinement of the machinery.

In the realm of car companies, when a new "leader" comes online to "turn
things around", there usually is some cutting and whacking of things.
Kind of like a butcher as they slice and dice and cut a meat carcass to
prepare it for a meal. They all want to trim the fat, or most of it, to
make a better end product. But a good trim job followed by a poor
"cooking" job is a waste of good resources. What's to blame, the cook
or the meat?

When Cerberus bought controlling interest of Chrysler, it seemed to be a
good mix as they were already in the automotive vendor area. I could
see where, with the next generation of Chrysler vehicles, more of the
Cerberus entities could be the preferred suppliers which would build
business synergies, hopefully beneficially.

Then they brought in all of the high level Lexus and Toyota operatives.
All, from print accounts, wanting to "Rebuild an American Icon" (and
increase the value of their future worth, I suspect). Unfortunately,
Toyota and Lexus aren't really known for innovative and motivational
advertising or product. They do build nice automotive appliances, but
that's about all. Their appliances to have value and status, but that's
about all they say to me . . . other than "boring to drive". Their
appliances might never break, but they do require maintenance. IF they
break, few people complain about it, by observation.

Then Cerberus made a big deal of getting some of the last two Chrysler
generations of "dream team" advisors in the mix, which also sounded
good, but also seemed to indicate that the new imported operatives might
need some help in their future directions. All of this sounded good,
but then gas went up and other things went down.

Much of what GM and Chrysler have been doing is more about trimming
operating costs rather than building volume and sales with compelling
products. But then when GM got some great products out, other factors
resulted in these new highly-acclaimed products not generating the
increasing stock prices as the continue string of new products in the
1990s did for Chrysler. Each time a new product came out, Chrysler's
stock doubled. First with the "rounded" Ram, then with the LH cars the
next year, and so on until it had started at $8.00/share and ended at
close to $50.00/share in just a few years. Profits were great, too, as
they had shorter development times and better production pricing levels
while still selling the vehicles at decent price points.

The one mistake back then was that "Eagle" should have been "Plymouth"
with a nice line of smaller (Neon platform), midsize, and LH cars, plus
the requisite minivans.

Cerberus seems to have dusted off an earlier combination strategy of an
earlier Chrysler Corporation. That the plan is probably 20 years old
might seem to give it credibility, but that still doesn't mean it's
good. Nor was the way GM did "brand management"!

So, rather than continue the mindless speculation (and related alleged
justification!) of which carline might need to be eliminated from whose
product mix, judging solely on sales performance in an expanding
marketplace, it might be much more beneficial to look back and see what
went wrong and NOT do it again!

Saving money via corporate overhead cuts might help pay the bills
initially, but then you have go take those savings and reinvest them
BACK into new product or improving the existing products.

As possible credibility to the Toyota/Lexus marketing "imports" at
Cerberus/Chrysler, they have seemed to determine that the way the
imports have done their option group contents might not really work for
a USA brand vehicle. Via printed media, it was reported that they are
going to allow luxury package options to not be dependent upon engine
choices. For example, in the Sebring, they are trying to finalize that
you can get leather without the V-6, but with a 4 cylinder. Plus moving
more of the luxury options in to lower level cars and eliminating the
higher trim levels at the same time. This sort of product mix
simplification does make sense and also can improve the value to the
customer. I wonder when a 3rd interior color combination might be
added?

So much of modern vehicle design seems to be driven by taking production
costs out of the vehicles. No chrome trim? Limited interior color
choices? Options in a package only? Kind of like only having carpeted
floor mats in the higher level models (with a different trim code) and
not offering them in the same trim code as a less expensive model.
There are many things that can be done with little or no increase in
vehicle costs by letting some luxury options be available on the lesser
models. They come down the same assembly line anyway!

Most of the financial ills of the USA car companies might have been
there for quite some time, just that decreasing sales made them worse.
No body worried about retiree health insurance costs until sales
decreased a while back. Having more sales would have made that
$1500/vehicle cost be spread out over more vehicles and more related
profits.

If the USA vehicle manufacturers are building too many different
vehicles now, according to the "experts" again, how do they explain the
vast proliferation of import vehicles in the marketplace and their
successes? How do they explain the expansion of Toyota dealerships "in
the hinterlands" as they claim that USA brands should decrease their
number of dealerships? They seem to advocate that the USA brands should
scale things back (allegedly to make more profits!) for a smaller dealer
network as they don't tell Toyota or Suzuki or Kia or Hyundai to not
expand into these vacated markets?

So many unexplained or "spun out of control" double standards!

Regards,

C-BODY
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Bill Putney

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Since: Feb 25, 2005
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(Msg. 12) Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 5:44 am
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Lloyd wrote:

> Chrysler buys most parts instead of making them, so there'd still be
> parts available.

But at what quality level?

A company in dire straits will put tremendous pressure for low cost on
their suppliers - an MBA sees low purchase price as a direct effect on
profit margin without understanding (or pretending not to understand due
to the short-sighted nature of modern business) one iota about
unintended consequences of making low purchase cost job 1.

When too much pressure is put on for low cost, the quality will suffer
regardless of how much b.s. faux quality programs you put in place to
"ensure quality". I worked for a supplier to Visteon and Delphi for 6
years in the 90's and early oughts, and saw the toll on quality that
Ford's mandating 5% each year out of the price to them took. Ultimately
when there's no more fat to take out of the supplier's overhead and
processes along with the requirement for more and more warm bodies on
the payroll to run and document the b.s. quality programs, the quality
"documentation" starts getting faked (witness Explorer/Firestone) as
well as the good faith between "team partners" being totally destroyed
(same can be said for GM/Delphi's Lopez-invented PICOS program).

Bill Putney
(To reply by e-mail, replace the last letter of the alphabet in my
address with the letter 'x')
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Bill Putney

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Since: Feb 25, 2005
Posts: 1002



(Msg. 13) Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 6:10 am
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C-BODY.RemoveThis@webtv.net wrote:

> ...Also, in the Magnums, they have 3.90 gears in them. Previously, the LH
> cars had 3.64 final drive ratios (not the overall ratio in OD), similar
> to what I believe the LX cars have with the 3.5L V-6.

My LH car FSM says 3.66 (minor point). There was the 3.89 (6.3%
diffence) variation on the 300M Special (offered in '02 and up) with the
HO 3.5L engine and *all* LH cars with the 2.7L engine (some Intrepids
and Concordes, all European M's) - '98 thru '04. The higher ratio
transfer sprockets swap was/is one of the most popular mods with owners
of the other LH cars.

> In the 1960s, if you bought a Chevy BelAir or Biscayne with a 283 V-8,
> it had 3.08 gears in it. If you bought a similar Impala, it had 3.36
> gears in it. One orientation was that the "better" Impala had to run
> better too. But if you consider that the Impalas usually had a little
> better insulation and trim package, plus more optional extras, they
> weighed more as a result. The 3.36 rear axle compensated for that extra
> weight, too. Any loss in ultimate fuel economy kind of went with the
> territory of having a fancier car...

Bill Putney
(To reply by e-mail, replace the last letter of the alphabet in my
address with the letter 'x')
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Art2

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Since: Jun 04, 2004
Posts: 474



(Msg. 14) Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 1:17 am
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We had a 94 LHS and 99 300M. Both great cars. Unfortunately there is not
a single Chrysler made right now that we would consider buying.

My wife drives a Camry Hybrid and gets at least 35 mpg in city and
highway.... better than EPA figures.

I drive an Odyssey which beats the former king of minivans in price, quality
and mileage.
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Doug

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Since: Jan 16, 2006
Posts: 37



(Msg. 15) Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 3:21 am
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>
>What happens if an automobile manufacturer sinks? Are existing owners
>left with no way to buy replacement parts that are not available on
>the aftermarket?
>
>-KM

Not to worry.
Every time an auto maker has gone belly up or was no longer imported,
someone has stepped in to supply the spare parts. Why? Because the
parts business is profitable.

When Studebaker stopped making cars in 1966, ALL parts were available
until the 1980's. Even today, Newman and Altman and others sell
Studebaker parts.

Parts are still available, with a few exceptions of mainly body parts,
for the AMC models made BEFORE the Chrysler buyout of AMC in 1988.

Yugo enthusiasts (yeah, I know that's hard to believe), can still get
parts for their cars through specialty suppliers.

And if one digs deep enough, Daewoo parts ARE available.

It just gets a little harder and one might have to resort to mail
order, once there no longer is a new car dealer left around for a
Marque.

I can easily get all the parts I need for my 1929 Ford Model A.

Doug
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