Change or die for the Big 3

Change or die for the Big 3
http://tinyurl.com/5v9loa

We've heard it a million times.

"Our restructuring plan is working."

And it always is, until some unforeseen market force blows up beyond
"anyone's expectations."

Gas prices. Steel prices. Hybrid demand. Congress.

Pick a poison. But if you have to restructure your restructuring plans
more often then your quarterly reports, you're problems are bigger than
having too many trucks.

That was made clear again Tuesday when May's monthly sales figures were
released and for the first time ever, the Detroit Three were overtaken
by Asian automakers in terms of overall U.S. market share.

General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC now lay claim to
45.4 percent of the U.S. market. Asian automakers, led by Toyota Motor
Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co., now control 47.8 percent,
according to Autodata Corp., which compiles monthly sales figures.

Even more striking and unfamiliar was the elevation of the Honda Civic
as the No. 1 selling vehicle in the U.S. Ford's F-series pickups had
been king for more than 30 years.
Plenty of people knew

So what happened and how could the executives at the Renaissance Center,
Glass House or Auburn Hills auto complex not know?

Your neighbor Joe knew. You knew.

Truth is, plenty of people in the know, knew, too. They've just been
ignored, pushed aside or told to play along because that's part of the
Detroit auto culture -- and part of the problem.

Money was good and consumers were demanding and buying big pickups. And,
make no mistake, nobody has ever been forced to buy an SUV or truck.
Consumer demand drove the U.S. auto market and the automakers rightly
responded.

They didn't plan well and allocated too many resources into one segment
at the risk of another, but that Explorer, Escalade or Ram that you're
driving today didn't arrive thanks to Jedi mind tricks played by Obi-Wan
Mulally.
Changing business plans

How, or if, Detroit's automakers make a real shift in how they do
business will determine whether they'll survive. They have to further
thin their work forces, diversify their product lineup and bring
tomorrow's vehicles to market today -- if not yesterday.

That won't happen overnight in this industry, nor would it in any of
similar size and it requires realistic expectations from investors,
consumers and policy makers. Perhaps the recent spate of changes will
drive Detroit properly into the future.

No longer can we trust that revamped business plans are on track.

We'll believe that when the next thing we hear isn't something we've
already heard before.

--
Civis Romanus Sum

Sometimes you dont hear the shot that kills you. And Detroit probably didnt
hear the fuel crisis booming away quickly enough.

I dont expect them to die, actually, but they will have to react wisely to
avoid
being pummeled to a pulp.

"Business as usual" has taken a head shot.